Hoping for an Easy Go for Orb

Beyer: 

If Orb is going to win, I want like to see him deliver a truly great effort. He could do so. His Derby victory, though it was accomplished under favorable circumstances, was certainly no fluke. And he may continue to improve. His trainer, Shug McGaughey, takes his time developing horses. In 1989, his great colt Easy Goer improved sharply from the Derby to the Preakness (which he lost by a nose) and then improved even more to win the Belmont Stakes by eight lengths. If Orb is on a similar trajectory, the sport may have plenty of excitement in the coming weeks. [Washington Post]

Great point there about Easy Goer.  And, like Orb, that colt ran three times at three before the Derby - winning the Swale, Gotham, and Wood.  But the spacing was very different of course.  The Wood was only two weeks before the Derby, and the Gotham two weeks before that.  The two races in the four weeks before the Derby are two more than Orb, who'd last run in the Florida Derby five weeks prior, ran during that time.  Amazing....again, it's hard to get over how drastically things have changed in such a relative blink of an eye.  However, all things being relatively equal given the changes in the game, and assuming that there's no Sunday Silence lurking in the field, here's some hopeful historical precedent for Orb to soar into a Triple Crown bid at Belmont three weeks hence.

Preakness Prattle

I've never cashed a ticket on the Preakness.  That's not quite as bad as it sounds because I've sat it out fairly often.  Not always a great betting race but, more often than not, perfectly compelling enough just to watch.  Will probably pass on it again this year, partly because of that, and partly to keep my perfect record.  It's kinda like a badge of honor; I mean, how many of you can say that?

My earliest recollection of futility is the 1980 edition, when Angel Cordero Jr took Codex out several paths on the turn to stop the momentum of the oncoming Genuine Risk, who I had in the Derby and came back with in the second leg.  Saw that the entire ABC broadcast is posted on You Tube.  33 years ago, and a lot of advances in broadcasting since then, with all the different camera angles, replay technology, reporters on horseback, animated simulations, and the like.  But don't know what could have been added to the coverage then.  Helps when you have knowledgeable people like Jim McKay, Eddie Arcaro, and....yes....even Howard Cosell providing the commentary.  If you're interested, the race starts at the 31 minute mark with the great Dave Johnson calling the action; and the post-race coverage of the stewards inquiry is worth watching.  And check out the "gentleman from California," Wayne Lukas, celebrating with Cordero at the 41 minute mark.  After the stewards left the result unchanged, McKay says: "Boy, are they gonna be writing and talking about what you saw on the screen several times..." "For a long time, Jimmy," adds Cosell.  Indeed.  (And yes, he should have been taken down.)



Orb draws the rail and is made even money; I don't think he'll be a penny over 3-5.   I find it a bit breathtaking that Shug would label the colt's breeze on Monday "breathtaking."   And the trainer was pleased again as the horse galloped over the track at Pimlico on Wednesday.  As I said prior to the Derby, when this trainer talks, I listen. 

  "The one thing that really surprises me is how well he's come out of his races, not only mentally but physically," McGaughey said. "I was looking at him with the blanket off him and the sun shining and I saw a different horse than I saw a week ago. He's sure come a long way since the Florida Derby.  [SI.com]

So yes, I believe Orb will continue to improve, and make short order of this field.  Just to be safe though, I will avoid even exotics with him on top so as not to jinx his chances.  Want to see madness and mayhem at Belmont on June 8. 

Departing (6-1) is the leader of the new-shooter contingent; 3rd choice in the Preakness morning line after winning the Illinois Derby.  It's easy for me to make cases against the horses that are running back from the Derby, despite the various excuses, which are indeed legitimate I believe in the cases of Goldencents, Oxbow, and Will Take Charge (in descending order of legitimacy).  Not quite so Departing; he has classy-looking running lines with his four wins in five starts; comes home well and hails from solid connections.  (And there's that sentimental crap too.)   But he came up a bit short in his one try against this type of company; and he comes up slower on my numbers, and on Beyer's too.

Lukas is saying that Titletown Five is not going to try for the lead.

"I'd like to see him relax about 3-4 lengths off (the pace). I don't think he'll be on the lead and I really don't want him on the lead, either. He's not as one-dimensional as his form is going to show him to be. [Kentucky.com]

That's good news for Goldencents (8-1), who I believe will therefore find himself alone on the lead.  Not buying Governor Charlie (12-1); shows some snappy fractions from the Sunland Derby, but seems to me that the track was souped up that day.  Nonetheless, still don't like O'Neill's colt for the top slot.  Can't take those front-running efforts on big-race days on that Santa Anita dirt track seriously after that speed bias fiasco in the Breeders' Cup last year.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2013/05/15/2641358/preakness-notes-lukas-taking-new.html#storylink=cpyThat's gotta be good news for Goldencents (8-1).  Governor Charlie (12-1) has some fancy splits in that Sunland Derby win, but looks to me like that track was souped up that day; I don't think he can run with Doug O'Neil's colt.  So I think Goldencents could be out there by himself for awhile.  Still don't like him though.  Hard for me to take too seriously his front-running efforts on big-race days on that Santa Anita dirt track after the Breeders' Cup fiasco last year. 

Itsmyluckyday (10-1) draws the outside.  Well, as I've said, everyone coming out of the Derby gets to use the "he didn't like the track" excuse; but this horse got beat decisively by Orb in the Florida Derby and ran 22 lengths behind him in the Derby and does anyone really believe that this horse is gonna compete with him this time?  On the other hand, he was reported to be doing well prior to the Derby, and was reported by his trainer to have worked well last Sunday.  He was the wiseguy horse in the bad sense in the Derby, overbet at 9-1; could maybe see him as a sneaky wiseguy play to hit the board here at double his morning odds (which he won't be).

 - In the 7th at Belmont today, Downtown Hollie (4-1) won off a layoff for trainer Anthony Dutrow at the Big A last month, closing determinedly in an even-paced affair.  In her first effort for jockey Cornelio Velasquez, back again today, she returned to the mid-pack closing style which had served her well in the past.  Moves back to state-bred company at a level in which she ran well here last summer, and prepared at Fair Hill with a half-mile breeze as she did before her prior.  Has raced well in the past off this 25 day spacing 2nd off the layoff and looking for another good effort here.  Inimitable Romanee (5-2) looks fastest of these, but comes off a layoff of 176 days.  If early last year is any indication, when she returned from a break of a shorter duration, she'll need a couple of races to get going.  Best of luck and have a great day.

Sunday Notes and Nostalgia

Been quite the miserable week for racing at Belmont.  Thus far, through Saturday's races, not a single fast track race to be found; and despite a gorgeous Mother's Day, looks like there won't be one on Sunday either.  Must say though that the field sizes have held up pretty well - a lot more horses running than we saw on many a fast track during the Aqueduct meeting past.  One guy who certainly hasn't seemed to mind is trainer David Jacobsen, who has compiled a record of 16-6-2-2 on the surfaces ranging from sloppy to good (coming into Sunday's races in which he had some good prospects, including Saginaw) ; so a Happy Mudder's Day to him!

Another one who loved the off going was Freedom Child, who romped in the Peter Pan in the easiest kind of win one will ever see.  12-1 in the morning line, someone must have known he'd like the slop.....or maybe it was just that West Point Thoroughbreds partnership money pouring in.  Despite a bit of a slow start, the son of Malibu Moon (also the sire of Orb), pranced to the lead and effortlessly blazed a half mile in 46.67.  From that point on, he decelerated steadily even as he continued to widen - subsequent quarters of 24.31, 24.97, and a final furlong in 13.14 while drifting out to the middle of the track, despite the efforts of jockey Luis Saez who, according to the race chart, was applying some strong right handed stick work as a corrective measure, particularly once past the eighth pole, to no avail.

Sounds like a true Belmont horse, eh?

Well, considering the historical precedent of the Peter Pan as a Belmont prep (though, according to Michael Veitch in the Saratogian, it's been since 1999 (Lemon Drop Kid) since a horse used the race as a stepping stone to Belmont glory), and the public partnership owning Freedom Child that is always looking for a marketing/publicity edge, we can surely expect to see this one lined up come June 9.  And he'll likely attract some attention too given that running line from 11/24/12 in which he finished two lengths behind Orb and a couple in front of 3-10 favorite Revolutionary.  Nevermind that that race, like the Peter Pan, was a one-turn route, and that his only two-turn win came in a maiden race at Gulfstream in which he came home in a pedestrian 39 1/5 for the last three-eighths and earned a Beyer of 83.  Who knows, maybe it will rain.  But in any event, color me highly skeptical of both the colt's ability and the motivation for wheeling him back at a mile and a half as opposed to what's really best for the horse.

One (mildly) interesting note on pedigree - Freedom Child, out of a Deputy Minister mare, is related to the one-time Pletcher Derby hopeful Shanghai Bobby; they have the same third dam, and their second dams are full sisters, both by Carson City.  (And note that the Toddster does not have a single horse listed amongst the Preakness eligibles at this point in time.)

The winning margin of a bit over 13 lengths is reminiscent of the Peter Pan win by Coastal in 1979, who won the race by the same margin, and went on the win the Belmont 13 days later (after being supplemented for $20,000).  And, of course, Coastal foiled the Triple Crown bid of Spectacular Bid that day, thus kicking off the current drought which many of us hope that Orb will finally break.  Always fun to go back in the NY Times archives to see what they had to say.   And Coastal was just an afterthought, as the big news was the defection of Czaravich, a Nijinsky colt who had created excitement since a belated debut earlier in the year, then running second to Instrument Landing in the Wood and winning the Withers (and who went on the following year to win the Met Mile and the Carter). 

  Czaravich's withdrawal dimmed the luster of the big Memorial Day weekend of racing and most of the 30,597 fans on hand were disappointed.  Some will be back to watch Alydar in today's $100,000-added Metropolitan Mile, the first leg of the handicap Triple Crown, after watching Davona Dale outrun the fillies on Saturday [in the Acorn]. 

  Ah, Davona Dale and Alydar, not a bad weekend of racing, eh?  Wonder how this year's Memorial Day weekend cards will stack up?  Alydar was back at four after he just failed to break up that last Triple Crown the year before, and ran 26 times in his career; ten of those as a juvenile, wow.  But he did not fare well in that Met Mile, struggling home in 6th after unexpectedly challenging early for the lead, as State Dinner splashed home on a sloppy track to return $61.40. 

  Said John Veitch, Alydar's trainer [of jockey Jorge Velazquez), "The boy rode the horse wrong." 

  No, we don't refer to jockey's as 'boy' anymore!  Gee, I wonder why!  Back then, a horse with no rider listed might be designated as 'no boy;' and one might sometimes see 'good boy' as a preview comment for a horse.  Also interesting to read about the holiday crowd of 50,504.  As Steve Cady reported:

  The Saturday-Sunday-Monday total was 113,081.  But neither Alydar nor State Dinner could take credit for yesterday's unusually heavy traffic.  The added gimmick was an after-the-races workout by Pablo Cruise and Pure Prairie League, the opening attraction in a Belmont Park series of 15 rock'n'roll concerts.
......
With yesterday's concert attracting thousands of young patrons, management didn't miss the opportunity for a little promotional propaganda.  At every entrance, hostesses distributed a variety of brochures that included such instructional literature as "How to Get to Saratoga" and "How to Read Daily Racing Form Past Performances."
......
Said Tom Leonard, a Fordham sophomore who came out to hear Pablo Cruise and Pure Prairie League: "It's true we're not helping the betting handle much.  But maybe in a few years, when we've got more money, we'll be coming here to play horses."

Yeah, thinking that probably didn't work out.  But the OTB era was underway, and NYRA was making the good effort to attract new fans on-track.  But Pure Prairie League?  Man, I was never a fan of that band.  (The Belmont show I recall most fondly was the one by Dave Mason.)   But I know there must be some PPL fans out there (Figless? Nick Kling?), and some Vince Gill fans as well, so I will leave you today with this.

Sampson (Finally) Takes the Fall. And This One is BAD.

In announcing the arrest of the one-time Democratic Senate Majority Leader John Sampson, Brooklyn U.S. Attorney Loretta Lynch called it “one of the most extreme examples of hubris and arrogance we have ever seen.”[NY Daily News]

Hmm, seems to me that's not the first statement with that kind of superlative we're heard around here.  Oh yeah; commenting on the allegations against Democratic Assemblyman Eric Stevenson, U.S. Attorney Preet Bharara called it “an especially breathtaking bit of corruption, even by Albany standards.”  That was just a few days after Bharara, commenting on the Malcolm Smith arrest, noted: "Not every state Legislature has this level of criminality exposed."

These allegations against Sampson are bad.  Really bad.  If you haven't read about them, you can do so here in the Post story, the headline of which says he's facing 120 years.  This old school pre-Power Point style chart presented at the press conference pretty much tells the story.

Basically, Sampson allegedly skimmed money from foreclosure escrow accounts for which he was court-appointed referee (to pay for an ultimately unsuccessful campaign for district attorney, imagine that, he could be arresting himself!), allegedly borrowed money to cover some of it, allegedly attempted to interfere in an investigation into the person who allegedly supplied the loan, allegedly threatened to "take out" witnesses, and, apparently, most definitely told FBI agents that (in a line destined to go down in the annals of Albany corruption history): “Not everything I told you was false.”  Seems like a good T-shirt slogan there.

Well, just how bad is it?  Instead of issuing the standard denial and 'my client will be exonerated' bravado, Sampson's lawyer was saying things like:

  “Senator Sampson has been fully cooperative with the government since we were contacted some months ago in connection with this investigation.” [NY Post]

  And:

  “The senator does not stand accused of any offenses of misuse of his office.....This is an ordinary case that has been given an official corruption coat of paint, and I think that’s unfair.” [NYDN] 

Wo.  I mean, if the attorney is not loudly proclaiming innocence, now that's bad.  Makes one think that his client is perhaps considering the plea bargain that could put him behind bars for a maximum of about four years.

This case has nothing to do with the AEG scandal.  But seeing these charges against Sampson and the ones against Smith in his alleged wacky mayoral scheme certainly puts the audacity of the effort to fix the highly scrutinized racino process into context.

 - Saw on Twitter this note from one Steve Haskin.

Sneaky Preakness horse to watch: Will Take Charge. Just watch what happens to him while moving stride for stride with Orb. Watch overhead.
— Steve Haskin (@SteveHaskin) May 7, 2013

Ah, Haskin.  I didn't follow him at all this year, and don't on Twitter, but caught this via a retweet. Went back to his final entry before the Derby, and once again, the man suffers a total meltdown, just utterly incapable of specifying a horse as the one he likes.  Steve....please, pull yourself together.  Just make a pick, I know it's hard, and that your eyes must glaze over after all those weeks and months of obsessing over a single horse race; but we all do it.  Nobody except me will think any less of you if you're wrong.  (And you don't get credit for picking the winner if one of the six horses you mentioned as candidates had won.  Which they didn't.)

Anyway, I watched the overhead shot, and I think that's just nonsense.  Will Take Charge was at least a couple of paths inside of Orb as they rounded the turn, providing the illusion that he was keeping stride while Orb was covering more ground.  As they turned for home, and just before Will Take Charge ran up into a tiring Verrazano, Orb seems poised to edge away, and I'd be quite confident betting that he was getting ready to leave his rival in the dust.  Of course, we'll never know for sure, but I'd be more than happy to see people jump on that bandwagon come Preakness time.

The more interesting thing about watching the overhead shot is to see how relatively clean the race was; at least through the opening and closing stages that we see in the video, the times when bad trouble would be most likely to occur.  Seems almost like a regular horse race, albeit with more horses. The field broke cleanly from the gate, settled into the various tiers quite readily, and I really don't see any obvious excuses other than horses wide; and Orb took about the worst of that anyway.

Derby Notes

So, now that you've read everything you need to know about the Derby, we'll go for, in a stream of consciousness format as I'm in a bit of a daze this morning after last night's Rangers game, things that you don't.  And maybe/hopefully some stuff you haven't read anywhere else.

For one thing, something you don't need to know: I won; not much, but profitable.  Pretty much stuck to what I wrote here.  I abandoned Revolutionary when he was the favorite; bet Orb and Palace Malice to win and place.  Was surprised and a bit disappointed at Orb's ultimate win price, as he was 7-1 when I bet with probably not much more than 15 minutes to go; so he really got slammed late a la Sweetnorthernsaint in 2006 (actually the favorite over Barbaro that year).  But won't complain too much.  Other than a small exacta box with the two, didn't even bother with exotics (I tend to get overwhelmed and drunk on Derby day, which leads me to shut down rather than piss money away). That was a good thing given the second place finisher, but more on him below.

I won't bother to mention the name of the annoying woman who was on the NBC telecast (and who I've never seen nor heard of before), though we ended up listening to some good music instead.  So didn't hear that much of the telecast.

Did catch the segment though when Jerry Bailey took viewers through his computer animated prediction of how the race would go.  And with respect to the winner anyway, he was pretty much right on.  Had Orb closing through the stretch to win, "like a tremendous machine," he joked, alluding to the immortal call by Chic Anderson of Secretariat's Belmont win.  Also mentioned in that context was Dave Johnson's tag line "down the stretch they come," and I think it was Randy Moss who explained to viewers that the lines were a tribute to "the late Chic Anderson and Dave Johnson," which led yours truly to note on Twitter that the latter is still alive.

Well, visually, it may indeed have looked as if Orb was a "tremendous machine" as he blew by the field from his spot near the back of the pack.  But I don't know if his final quarter of 25.97 qualifies as such.  He was an 'very good machine' or an 'efficient machine' perhaps, surely good enough to get past this field, in which only he, Revolutionary (26.03), Golden Soul (26.13), and Mylute (26.24) cracked the 27 second mark. 

NBC's track announcer Larry Collmus, in reviewing the field as they rounded the final turn, noted that there was "nothing yet from Orb, he's still about 15th," but then added "he begins to move up on the far outside" before moving on, and I'd guess from a legacy standpoint that he's really glad he got that last bit in.  It provided context and continuity for his big "ORRRB" stretch call.  I read somewhere that Churchill's announcer Mark Johnson misidentified Mylute as being Java's War in the stretch call, which is too bad.  Maybe he had picked Java's War beforehand and got excited mistakenly.  It's just a small point I know, but still don't think that track announcers should be giving out picks before the race as Johnson normally does on the CD simulcast feed.  Track announcers are neutral reporters of the race play-by-play, and should keep their opinions to themselves; it's just not appropriate in my view.

Golden Soul broke up a lot of tickets I'm sure with his second place finish at 34-1.  Looking back to try and see where that came from, the horse had just one win coming in (and coming out); and that was a romp in a maiden race at Fair Grounds in December.  Now, that race earned a pedestrian Beyer figure of 79; but came up as a big number on the figures I'm using these days.  In fact, it had been the subject of some discussion in the office, and, even after being subsequently downgraded a bit, was referred to as an outlier.  So, after three subsequent races of closing mildly, it was interesting to see him run second in the Kentucky Derby.  Having said that however, it surely had far more to do with the ridiculously fast pace and the incredibly fortuitous inside trip than a maiden win last year against four horses who have combined for two maiden wins since. 

Speaking of that pace...that was something that nobody anticipated.  General wisdom was that we'd see a slower pace without any horses having earned their way in off two-year old races; 47, 1:11 was what I was hearing.  Guess those blinkers didn't quite work out for pace setting Palace Malice. 

  “The blinkers sharpened him too much,” Dogwood Stable president Cot Campbell said. “Mike couldn’t hold him. He said he did everything he could and he still could not apply any restraint.” [Augusta Chronicle]

  So, the Blue Grass got him in, but his antics in the stretch in that race got him blinkered, which caused him to run off in the Derby, virtually eliminating Goldencents and setting up the stretch run for the top four finishers.  So who says preps on synthetic are meaningless; it changed the entire complexion of the race.  Worth mentioning I think that Palace Malice actually hung around to finish 12th, ahead of the all the others that were close early.  He's taking 60 days off now and, after having him in his no-chance Louisiana Derby and in this race, I definitely see future wagering exploits with him down the road, for better or for worse.  Anyway, the moral of the story I think is that one should always lean towards anticipating high speed in a 20 horse field.

With all the talk about Normandy Invasion being the wise-guy horse, I'd say that Itsmyluckyday ended up with those honors, going off at 9.50-to-1 as he did.  I feel free to discuss this now, because I did tweet shortly before the race that: It'smyluckyday is the most overbet horse in the field; so no red boarding here.  You could feel the steam starting to rise on this one as the days ticked down to race day, as the workout reports were good and more and more people starting saying things like: "if you like Orb you gotta like Itsmyluckyday."  But don't really know where that came from, seemed like a really odd choice for a Derby bandwagon horse.

Verrazano had no apparent excuse for his 14th place finish.  Well, except for, of course: "I just don't think he liked the track."  The beauty of the ugly sloppy track is that everybody who needs one has a convenient excuse.  So all the losers will throw this one out and hopefully come back in the Preakness or some other race soon so we can all bet against them again.

Derby Live Blog - Music I'm Listening to when Michelle Beadle is On

Derby Day

Guess I gotta do Derby picks, and always find it difficult, and a bit anti-climactic after all the build up.  It's just one race.  For one thing, we all spend far too much time over the race, as I've stated many times before; and that's just not good as far as handicapping goes, at least for mine.  Find I usually do best when I find a horse that stands out right off the bat, on the first scan, and derived from basic handicapping fundamentals - form, speed, class, pace, tote - that one doesn't need more than a paper or pdf to discern.  It's after that when I confirm, compound, or amend those first impressions via further research into trainers, results charts, and replays.

But for the Derby, I'm already way beyond that; and it becomes a game of changes of mind, second and third guesses, way way too much information and far too many persuasive opinions from people far smarter than myself (though no more likely nor qualified to pick the winner of this single particular race than any of us).

Anyway, here goes.  I've already discussed and dissected the top contenders in recent days and weeks, so not going to repeat myself and therefore will keep it brief.   If you haven't been following here and need a more comprehensive horse-by-horse, check out our buddy El Angelo's excellent analysis on the Gowanus Baseball blog.  (Or about a thousand other blogs or websites if you look around.)

Revolutionary (10-1) is probably best prepared for what he is going to encounter than any of the other horses here.  When he breaks from the 3 post (now with only one horse inside of him), it shouldn't look much different to him than the Louisiana Derby, when he also broke from the inside and found himself last (just a mere six more horses in the field).  He circled way wide in that one, so has that experience should he need to do so here.  Or, more likely given that he's breaking from an inside post and being ridden by Calvin Borel, should he need to find a path home on or near the rail, inside of or betweent horses, well he's already done that in his escape act in the Withers.  And, if he finds himself confronted, or even passed, by another in the stretch, he's already shown that he can dig down and fight back, as he did when Mylute edged in front in the stretch at Fair Grounds.

Now, it might be of concern that he was head and head with a 19-1 shot who will not be amongst my selections in the Derby.  But he was edging away at the end, and this is one horse who I am reasonably convinced will handle the extra distance.  While his sire, the BC Juvenile winner War Pass, is a dead second-year stallion with limited statistical evidence available, his female breeding is, I believe, amongst the best distance pedigree in the race.  He's out of the mile and a quarter Alabama winner Runup the Colors; and she's a half to Flagbird, a 10 furlong winner in Italy, and the granddam of Little Belle, second in the CCA Oaks (at 1 1/4); and to the multiple G1 winner Prospectors Delite, the dam of champion Mineshaft, Tomisue's Delight (winner the 10f Personal Ensign and second in the Oaks. 

The main concern in my view is that, as pointed out in the abovementioned blog post on GRBG , the presence of Calvin Borel will likely mean he's overbet.  I also had my own concern that the jockey has already had a lifetime of good fortune in this race.  However, I imagine there's not a better rider for a horse who will find himself in the situation Revolutionary likely will, breaking inside as he will.  I'd like to get 10-1; and should he be bet too far below that, there's a point at which I'll rethink my strategy.  But, in addition to his other attributes and experience, Revolutionary has shown an indomitable will to win.  He's earned accolades for his workout and appearances on the track this past week, and figures to improve in just his third start of the year, the winning pattern in the last six Derbies.  He's the top pick.

Orb (7-2) is the training star of Derby week, hands down.  In his final recap, Mike Welsch called his workout "far and away the most impressive....of the week."  As I've written before, I think he's the best horse, and believe that his last-out Beyer doesn't reflect the improvement I believe he showed.  I will use him as the winner in some way, shape, or fashion no matter what I end up doing.

I liked Palace Malice (20-1) over Revolutionary going into the Louisiana Derby, and what has happened since that would change that opinion?  He was so hopelessly boxed in that race, that I don't think one can draw conclusions about their relative abilities from it.  Then the Blue Grass was an unexpected success in my view, doubting his turf/synth breeding as I do.  With four races already at age three, he doesn't fit the recent profile for Derby winners as we've seen.  But he's "trained forwardly," according to Welsch, and adds blinkers to help address the way he got distracted and changed leads in the Blue Grass stretch.  Think he could be the best value in the race; could end up betting using him on top if he is.

Itsmyluckyday (15-1) seems to be coming back into favor after his stock fell after he was decisively defeated by Orb in the Florida Derby.  No excuses that day; but he's drawn unanimous raves for his training this week; and, as mentioned, has the tactical speed to be close.  Will use underneath.

Been going back and forth and back and forth again on Verrazano (4-1).  I'm not picking him to win partly because he's the horse I'd feel the most stupid about selecting if he runs really bad.  But I still think his Wood was a step forward in his becoming a race horse, and I personally loved his appearance this week.  Think he's gonna run well and will use him on my tickets.

I see that Steven Crist picked Overanalyze (15-1) despite fretting over the fact that the Arkansas Derby could have been timed with a sundial.  As Crist points out, it was a pretty slow pace and he didn't start his move until nearing the turn (the same reasons why I've been saying you should take the Beyers by Orb and Verrazano with a grain of salt).  He's another coming in off the now-fashionable two starts at three and surely is eligible to improve.  Still, that race was pretty slow (on my numbers too), so will use at the bottom only.

Aw jeez, have I mentioned every Pletcher horse now?  Well, not Charming Kitten (20-1).  I presume we'll have a break from the sight of Ken Ramsey's smiling mug at least after this race.

The horses that figure to take money that I will be standing against (for reasons previously stated) are: Goldencents (5-1), Normandy Invasion (12-1), and Java's War (15-1).  With the possible exception of the latter, who I might have to throw in to the very bottom slot, if these horses finish in the money, I'll lose.

 - The surprise Oaks winner Princess of Sylmar ($79.60) looks pretty good on paper when you look back at her pp's.  Goes to show just how good the race was.  Still, her 97 Beyer was 13 points higher than her prior best.  So she either improved markedly, or her prior Beyers underrated her ability.  In either event, the Toddster's daughter of Majestic Warrior, out of a Catienus mare, may have been done a favor by hitting traffic after the start and being much further back than she'd been in the past.  It was a quick pace up front and she surely benefited from being far behind it.  Princess of Sylmar is inbred 4x3 to Dixieland Band, and 5x5 to Secretariat.

Cuomo Considers Punting on Casino Vote

Governor Cuomo tossed a sweeping curveball into the casino debate when he floated the idea of postponing the referendum to November, 2014.  We've all been assuming that the vote would come this November, and there's been discussion about how that would skew the decision in favor of New York City voters, expected to vote en masse in the mayoral election (especially if you have a couple of charismatic candidates, think Andrew Weiner vs Joseph Lhota).  There are no statewide elections this year, so turnout upstate would be limited to those with particular interest in weighing in on the topic.

So, in a way, it seems like the fair thing to do.  After all, the governor has declared that the first three casinos will be sited upstate at locations to be ultimately determined by the Gaming Commission which he has yet to appoint, so it only seems right that they have a fair say.  Of course, in a more perfect world, everyone would come out to vote every year regardless of what's at stake just out of a sense of duty to our participatory democracy.  However, that not being the case, 2014 should be a turnout bonanza statewide with the governor himself up for re-election, along with the entire Assembly and Senate.  Cuomo would be campaigning side by side with the measure; we'll see which way the political winds for are blowing at that point in time and, accordingly, how closely the governor wants to be associated with the issue.

And of course, we all know that fairness has nothing to do with it.  I'd surmise that if Cuomo was convinced the referendum could be passed this year by NYC voters who know they're not getting a casino right away, he would go for it rather than having to discuss and debate it during his re-election campaign.  And that's not to mention a year delay in the money flowing to the state.

 - The New York Gaming Association issued their usual self-congratulatory press release, this one touting their results from 2012.  

"Our nine existing facilities are tremendous economic assets that should be nurtured and developed,” association President James D. Featherstonhaugh said in a statement. [Syracuse.com]

I've been writing for quite some time here about how the NYGA will turn against this thing on a dime if they don't get the casinos (which still seems unlikely to me considering the governor's past comments about them being a 'scandal'); and this is the first time I've seen them acknowledge that publicly. 

"We would reserve our right to oppose it in the event we thought it was going to be harmful."  [Capitol Confidential]

Still wondering what happens to this organization should some of them get casinos, and others not.  I could see Yonkers and Genting lending support to racinos upstate for the precedent of the facilities being granted them and with an eye towards the next round; but otherwise hard to imagine unity other than a blanket denial or approval.

Anyway, I was on the NYGA site and clicked my way through the links to the member tracks, and found a couple of fun things.  The home page of the Batavia Downs Casino features a commercial starring the former Buffalo Bills running back great Thurman Thomas. 



Love that racetrack scene; and as cheesy as it is, it's probably the most realistic one in the spot.  Videos like this, and all those photos you see on the racino sites of young professional-looking types having such a great time serve to perpetuate the lie that these places are some kind of glamorous entertainment center rather than a grim cold palace designed to get people in a chair in front of a machine and keep them right there.

Here's the Finger Lakes Casino and Racetrack

Lie.

Look, this guy Daniel won $25,742.79 at Hamburg Casino at Buffalo Raceway and even he's not having fun.

Big event at Tioga Downs.




Oh, well, if that's not your cup of java, at Tioga you can at least look forward to some harness racing!




Um.....well, yeah but......nevermind.

Wednesday Morning Derby Notes

Got the DVR-ing correct this time, so got to watch Tuesday's edition of Pursuit of the Crown on HRTV.  Scott Hazelton looking natty with a fashionably cocked bow tie in the host role; and Richard Migliore with the expert commentary....and just great stuff from the Mig.  Definitely worth checking out if you're able.

Verrazano galloped and Migliore  pointed out how he was reaching his head down, looking for the bit, and said he looked "terrific." 

  "An imposing individual, atypical of the More Than Readys; he's got a little more substance to him, and I think that may see him get the extra distance." 

  "Won't get the distance" has become a meme with this horse, largely because of his sire, known more for middle distances; his top earners are milers from Australia and New Zealand.  His female side may add a little stamina to the equation.  By Giant's Causeway, the dam is inbred to Blushing Groom, and there are a few distance horses to be found in the family tree, including Al Khali, who won the 1 3/8 mile Bowling Green, and even a hurdle stakes winner (Brampour).  Still, even as my respect for the horse has progressed in the last few weeks from the ridicule I expressed earlier on, just don't see him quite getting this done.  I will use him underneath though, and I'd bet him to win at 10-1.

Goldencents seemed hard to handle, and Migliore noted how the rider was struggling to restrain him, and how he virtually leaped from left lead to right.  "He's very keen, he's on the muscle."  Welsch recalled: "He was somewhat reminiscent of I’ll Have Another in the final days leading up to his victory in the 2012 Derby."  I'm unmoved, and will not use him.  And hoping that Falling Sky, who Welsch noted "looks like he’ll be a handful to keep off the lead Saturday" makes life difficult for him.  (Though I wouldn't like him even if I know he'll be lone speed.)

By the way, if you missed it, Beyer is in fine form in Monday's Washington Post column in defense of Doug O'Neill, taking on Joe Drape and the Times directly for its characterization of the trainer's handling of his Derby winner last year.  I think it qualifies as 'brave' in the current environment.  And indeed, I think it's telling that, while the headline in the post read: Doug O'Neill doesn't deserve his bad reputation, the Daily Racing Form apparently couldn't stomach that and watered it down to:  O'Neill back under Kentucky Derby microscope.  

Migliore agrees with me that Normandy Invasion is a wise guy horse, and, as was the case with Will Take Charge, didn't like what he hears either.  The Mig has turned into a bit of a Dr. Doolittle here. "I still go back to sitting there and hearing him forging a little bit."  I have no idea what that means, but I assume it's not great. "I'm not sold that Normandy Invasion is really a mile and a quarter horse."

Walt McPeek's entries Java's War and Frac Daddy were "on their toes" according to the Form's clocker.  Haven't mentioned the latter here before, probably because he lost the Florida Derby and the Holy Bull by a combined 34 3/4 lengths.  He does have those two good races over the track though, and I guess his second in the Arkansas Derby was good (though I find it hard to evaluate races in which they go almost 27 seconds from 3/4s to a mile and then come home in 12 3/5).  He's a son of Scat Daddy out of a Skip Away mare; not much in the pedigree to get excited about this one.  So I won't be a happy horseplayer if he comes in the money.

I saw on Twitter where McPeek said, about Java's War: "Today was probably as good as I’ve ever seen him go over this surface.”  Not sure how much that means considering his 6th place finish in his own try over the course.  I wrote about why I don't like him here.  Think he's a grass horse; there's a guy in the office who feels that his distance pedigree trumps any surface concerns in this situation, in which most of the contestants simply won't get the distance, which I think is a fair point.  Will probably use him at the bottom of the tickets.

Video of Tuesday's activity here, courtesy of J.J. Hysell's In the Money blog.

 - In the 6th at Churchill, Clement Rock (6-1) is moving up in class, but maybe not as much as it may seem in an open 50K of questionable quality.  Ran some big numbers two and three back in races that have come back strong; Dark Cove, to whom he ran third by a length three races back, won the G2 Elkhorn at Keeneland, and two others came back to win their next races.  Was claimed before his prior by trainer Ingrid Mason, and ran back on 17 days rest, finishing second to another next-out winner (albeit in an off the turfer).  Chased the pace that day; think he'll do better by rallying here, and may (or may not) have the pace to do so; and has never seemed bothered by outside posts.  A bit more time off here (35 days), and a snappy half mile work at Arlington should have him well prepared today.  Derby Kitten (5-2) is the Maker/Ramsey favorite; been racing on synth and without much success of late.  Bell by the Ridge (3-1) also goes for Maker; beat restricted claimers at Fair Grounds in his last and comes up a bit slower on my numbers than the top choice.

In Pursuit of The Pursuit of the Crown

I'm really pissed at HRTV.  Set the DVR to record their Pursuit of the Crown show on Monday afternoon, and was looking forward all day to seeing the works and relaying some of the expert commentary to those of you who don't have access to the network.  But when I settled in to watch, I saw, much to my horror, a caption reading "aired on 4/28/13."  It was Sunday's episode.  They air two episodes in a row midday, and I only recorded the first one; I'm presuming that Monday's was the second.  Nonetheless, surely they must show it in prime time as TVG used to for The Works, right?

Wrong.  They were showing excerpts of NBC's 2000 Breeders Cup telecast instead.  And the 1999 Breeders Cup follows.  Huh, seriously?  Why wouldn't they try and showcase that show?  Don't see another showing of it until 3:30 AM.  So, instead of watching workouts, I'm watching Kalanisi win the Turf, which was a good race and pretty exciting to see since I had no recollection whatsoever of who won the race.  Kinda like Instant Racing.  NBC used that moving camera that rolled down the stretch with the horses; and that was really cool.  We see all the alternate camera angles that the networks have attempted over the years without success, and the one that actually worked, we don't see anymore.

So, what am I supposed to write about now?  The NYRA Bored meeting?

Well, of course there's Welsch's report on the workout by Orb (and others); and one might think from the reaction online that he made Saturday's race a mere formality.  Jay Privman tweeted that it was reminiscent of Barbaro, Street Sense before Derby.   Might as well just watch for yourself, if you haven't already.



By the way, the video comes by way of J.J. Hysell's In the Money blog, which had it up way before the workout page on the official Kentucky Derby site, which still doesn't have a working video of it as of this writing at 8:34 PM, which is pretty lame.  (And still, as of this posting on Tuesday morning.  That's more than pretty lame....this is the official Kentucky Derby site, get your act together, seriously!!!!) Welsch wrote of the gallop out:

  This was a true gallop-out, as compared with several others I’ve seen this past week, where the riders continued to offer some encouragement both into and on the bend.

Orb pulled up six furlongs in 1:14.83 in a move similar to, but even more impressive than, the one I witnessed at Payson Park five days prior to his winning effort in the Florida Derby. [DRF]

Look, there's nothing surprising here, at least to fans of the horse such as myself.  I think he's the best horse, and have every reason to believe that he would make an impressive appearance at this time (as should most if not all of the other Derby horses at this point, for that matter).  There's no doubt in my mind that he moved forward in the Florida Derby; think the 97 Beyer, the same as his prior race, while no doubt an accurate depiction of his final time, is bogus with respect to his performance in the race since it doesn't factor in the slow pace that helped lead to it.  (Same with Verrazano's Beyer in the Wood.)  Under the expert handling of his conservative trainer, I expect him to run a career best race on Saturday.  In most races, best horse + career best race equals a win.  But in this race, in which the slightest misstep can lead to disaster in the 20 horse field, the tote board will ultimately determine who I end up betting and how.

Oxbow and Will Take Charge didn't impress the Form's clocker so much; especially the latter, who was reported by Richard Migliore to have made a "raspy noise" after finishing a lethargic quarter of 25.62 to complete his five furlong race.  Later though, the horse told Ray Paulick that he was just doing his impersonation of Nick Zito.  (It's the second year in a row that Zito, who once dominated Derby week much like Pletcher does now, does not have a starter.)

Wanted to mention Itsmyluckyday, who The Mig singled out for his striking physical development on Sunday's episode of Pursuit of the Crown.  He was beaten fairly and squarely by Orb in the Florida Derby (though I of course feel that his Beyer isn't as bad as it looks), and naturally I don't think he's as good as Shug's colt.  However, this son of Lawyer Ron has made great strides in his 3yo season, and has excellent tactical speed which should allow him to sit close to a pace which nobody expects to be too hot.  His pedigree doesn't scream distance to me - out of a mare by Doneraile Court - family of the tough mare Viva Sec and the one-time Derby hopeful Vicar - but don't think he's impossible if things break his way.  And he should be a square price.

 - In the 7th 8th at Churchill on Tuesday, Seruni (4-1) returns to the Churchill main track; and despite the fact that he's spent most of his career racing on grass, some of his faster efforts have come on dirt.  Son of the ill-fated Saint Liam goes second off a 154 day layoff, and he's done well in that scenario,  as does his trainer Philip Oliver.  Note also that he's replicating a winning pattern; in the fall of 2011, he won over this course with a good speed figure 25 days after a race over the Keeneland Poly with a half mile work in between; and races here off those same exact circumstances.  Prior to his return at Keeneland, he ran a close 4th over this track in the Ack Ack, just a couple of lengths behind the multiple graded winner Neck 'n Neck (who we haven't seen since then), and just a head 'n neck behind the similarly accomplished Fort Loudon; earning a big speed figure in the process (at least with my numbers).  Barn hasn't had many starters thus far this year, but it's been way live of late, with a recent record of 6-2-1-1, including Last Full Measure ($37.60) in the G1 Madison.  Could work out a nice trip sitting off the speed.  Cool Street (7-2) was on a nice improving pattern until a dull effort in the New Orleans Handicap.  Drops in class and shows three drills since then, including a breeze just yesterday.  That used to be fairly common; remember we would have to look in the NYRA program to see the late work listings; but I rarely see that anymore.  In fact, I wouldn't be surprised if the horse is scratched; if not, expect to see him running late.  Taptowne (3-1) surprised with his second place finish in the Oaklawn Handicap, finishing ahead of a dull Fort Larned, and seems the one to catch.

Pursuit of a Second Opinion

A bunch of Derby workouts on Saturday, including the five horses from Pletcher who are definitely slated to start.  And according to the Mike Welsch, Revolutionary continues to stand out. 

  Work of the day Revolutionary (four furlongs in 48.31 seconds) became one of the rare few to garner two “work of the day” honors in less than a week while continuing to really impress since shipping to Churchill Downs following his victory in the Grade 2 Louisiana Derby. With...Calvin Borel aboard, Revolutionary breezed in company with fellow Derby contender Charming Kitten, who held a half-length advantage turning into the stretch after the pair posted a 24.61 opening quarter. But Revolutionary dominated the latter portion of the drill, coming home a final quarter in 23.50 while just cruising to the wire a length clear before readily pulling away, galloping out five-eighths in 1:00.58. The only glitch was the fact he again switched back briefly to his left lead near midstretch. He really seems to be handling the surface here extremely well. [DRF]

Welsch has the hots for this colt, for sure.  He didn't have anything bad to say about the other four, except for qualifying Verrazano's drill as "a very nice work, but not the standout performance perhaps many observers had been expecting to see."

I was interested in reading a few of the reader comments.   Here's Roger: 

Stop your love affair with Revolutionary and start reporting some facts on these workouts. Both Overanalyze and Palice Malice had better works than Revolutionary. Their workouts were faster than Revolutionary because both of these horses were traveling over the track much better....Revolutionary has a choppier stride than these two and may not even show up with mud in his face.

Now, I'm not saying that this guy Roger knows more than the esteemed clocker of the Daily Racing Form.  But the point is that, like most everything else one has to assess and consider when playing this great game, there is a certain amount of subjectivity in the evaluation of workouts, and knowledgeable people may disagree.  Welsch has surely earned much respect, but I don't see any oppositional views on the internet.  I'm sure there are private clockers issuing reports to paying clients or maybe on some private chat rooms, but it seems like Welsch has a virtual monopoly as far as free online content goes.  Please let me know if I'm missing something.

TVG's The Works used to be a great resource, with some expert commentary by trainer Tom Amoss amongst others, but we don't get that anymore.  HRTV covers the works on its Pursuit of the Crown series, but not that many people get that network (I'm getting it again, having recently switched to FIOS).  I did happen to catch Jeff Siegel listing his top five 3yo colts on some other show on HRTV while writing this;  he had Verrazano as #1.  He showed video of Saturday's workout, and explained (as if perhaps responding to Welsch's qualifier): 

"I know this may not have been the world's greatest work, but it was certainly good enough for me....turning into the stretch, he is gonna be in rhythm.  That's what I look at here; I'm not worried about a fast time - although it was a pretty good time, 59.3 - but to me, he's well in hand here, he's eager - it's a perfect work.  You don't want him to go too slow, but you don't want him to go too fast either.  You want him to go just about the way he did.......he had good energy every step of the way, he's in beautiful rhythm, he seems to be getting over the track just fine....It wasn't flashy, it wasn't brilliant, but you don't need that six or seven days before the race."

   Yeah, what do I know, but I think Verrazano looked fantastic, striding powerfully and smoothly, head down, all business. 

Pletcher himself singled out Overanalyze for praise (as did HRTV's Zoe Cadman).  "I thought this morning was the best I'd seen him breeze. Ever." [Kentucky.com]   Here it is, in company with Palace Malice (the one in front at first). 



I haven't really paid that much attention to Overanalyze since he disappointed in the Gotham, and even despite him winning the Arkansas Derby, as slow as the race came back (an 88 Beyer).  But I suppose he's eligible to improve based on the two-prep to glory pattern we've seen the last six years.  He's a son of Dixie Union out of an unraced mare by Unaccounted For (Private Account); he's a half-brother to the G1 Matron winner Meadow Breeze.

 - Orb out for a gallop this morning, saw the video on HRTV.  "Handles this track beautifully," according to Richard Migliore.  He playfully jumped the shadow of the finish line, which won't be a problem on Saturday if he gets there first.  Orb will work out on Monday morning.

Read more here: http://www.kentucky.com/2013/04/27/2617854/pletchers-horses-team-up-in-final.html#storylink=cpy

Saturday Morning Notes

At Belmont on opening day, another winner for trainer Randi Persaud, who won with Boldchildsrevenge ($9.10) in the 4th.  He then ran second in the 8th when Run a Dubb Dubb couldn't hang on (much to the chagrin of someone in the office); and also had a live runner in 4th place finisher Chics Palace at 71-1 in the 5th.  So, as mentioned the other day, this barn, which has struggled for quite some time, is definitely live at this time.

As cautiously selected in the last post, With Exultation ($8.90) made a successful debut in the 7th, taking advantage of a quick pace up front to run them all down from dead last.  So another 1st timer on the grass for Clement.  The Ramsey-bred colt beat the Ramsey-owned favorite, but don't worry, because the Ramsey's Ready to Taunt won the 9th for trainer Michael Maker.

Trainer Phil Serpe is enjoying the return to grass racing to the NYRA circuit.   Fly Ride ($10.60) won the 5th, giving the barn its 3rd winner, with one third, from six turf starters thus far.

 - Vyjack worked five furlongs in 1:00.36 at Churchill on Friday morning.  But from reading a couple of different accounts of the drill, one might think he worked out twice.   The Form's clocker Mike Welsch wrote: 

  After completing an opening three-eighths in 35.86, Vyjack appeared to struggle over the surface, with [trainer Rudy] Rodriguez taking out the stick and tapping him several times right-handed while also attempting to coax a little more run out of his horse both with the reins and with what can best be described as considerable verbal encouragement approaching the wire.

The Gotham and Jerome stakes winner continued to feel the stick from Rodriguez while galloping out six furlongs in 1:14.16 in a somewhat disappointing drill, considering the favorable impression he’d made galloping here earlier this week.

  But Claire Novak, reporting for Bloodhorse, wrote of the trainer's reaction: 

"If I'm not happy now, then I'm never gonna be happy," Rodriguez said of the effort of Pick Six Racing's Vyjack in preparation for the May 4 Derby. "He worked very, very good -- without company, did everything within himself. I really didn't get into him. He did everything very good and is very alert."

So, there you go.  Maybe somebody broke into the Form's servers and injected Welsch's review with poisonous words.  In any event, he's always impressed me as a nice horse but has never entered my short list as far as the Derby goes.  I wrote about the mixed signals in his pedigree for distance here.  His career high fast-track Beyer is 93.  And his Wood effort was a good one, but would have been better had he not gotten passed by Normandy Invasion at the end.

 - In the Derby Trial at Churchill tonight, Forty Tales (3-1) disappointed for Pletcher in the Swale Stakes at Gulfstream in his last.  He did swing quite wide turning for home, but I thought it was a rather dull effort with no other real excuse I can see for his 5th place finish at even money.  However, being the forgiving type that I am, I'm willing to look past.  It came 28 days after two similarly spaced efforts that were both quite fast, so he could have bounced a bit, and could benefit from the 56 day break coming into this race, with a steady series of drills leading up to it.  Thinking he should love the stretch out to a one-turn mile, and there should be ample early speed to set up a late charge.  Zee Bros (5-2) is another Baffert speedball shipping east; this one off a maiden win with a flashy speed figure in a race from which the 2nd and 3rd place horses went on to win their next heats.   This may not be the strongest Grade 3 stakes in the world, but this still represents a significant step up, and he figures to have some company from Lukas' Titletown Five (5-1) at the least.

The Rule Rather Than the Exception

When I mentioned the 1983 Derby winner Sunny's Halo in the last post, I seemed to recall, through the haze of the accumulated brain cell loss of the 30 years since, that he did something that year that hadn't been done in awhile.  That he'd broken one of the "rules" that used to dictate a good part of our Derby handicapping, and which have now mostly fallen by the wayside.  Couldn't recall exactly what it was though, so I went to the trusty New York Times search engine, and came up with this, from Steven Crist's report on the race. 

  This year, the colt won the Rebel Handicap and the Arkansas Derby at Oaklawn Park in his only two starts. It was the lightest 3-year-old campaign of any Derby winner since Jet Pilot in 1947.

(He was also the first-ever Arkansas Derby winner to get the roses.)  I was curious, but too lazy to research recent Derby winners to see how many races they've had at three; so I was particularly interested when reader August Song pointed out this article by Jeff Scott in The Saratogian.

  It should be pointed out...that while many of this year’s Derby contenders have had relatively busy campaigns at three, this is not the kind of prep schedule that has been winning the race in recent years. In fact, as was mentioned here in a recent column, the last six Derbies have been won by horses who had made just two prior starts at three. 

  And full credit to Scott for going on to provide the kind of critical context that I find missing in most sports writing and broadcasting: 

  (Horses with two prior 3-year-old starts made up approximately one-third of all Derby starters during this six-year period.)

Thank you!  We all know that the Classics game has changed drastically in a relative blink of an eye.  But this serves still as a pretty stark reminder; what was once a rarity is now such a regularity that it's just second nature, and not something I really even think about much anymore.  Maybe I should be?  I dunno.  Here's the list for this year. 

  This year’s Derby field will likely include five horses who have raced just twice in 2013: Revolutionary, Java’s War, Overanalyze, Normandy Invasion and Mylute.....A sixth expected Derby starter, Lines of Battle, won the UAE Derby in his lone outing this year.

I do like Revolutionary.  Not so much the other ones at this point in time, but guess we should keep this in mind.

One of those, Normandy Invasion, continues to attract the attention of the DRF clocker. 

The Wood Memorial runner-up looked razor sharp as he cruised around while kept out near the center of the one-mile oval under exercise rider Javier Herrera, stretching out beautifully, changing leads on cue, and keeping up the high energy from start to finish.
Trainer Chad Brown indicated how he felt about the morning not in words but by flashing a big thumbs-up as he passed by in the midst of a telephone conversation just outside his barn a short while later. [DRF]

I watched his Wood again, and still think his second place finish is being a bit overrated.  Yes, the pace was slow and he closed against the grain.  But it's not like he was far off the pace; he was just a length behind Verrazano at the half mile pole.  So I think he benefited from the slow pace too, had a relatively easy trip, never looked like winning, and had a spurt at the end that is visually impressive but may have been a case of the top two tiring late.  Not like they were flying home at that point; final furlong in 12.55.  Sure, on the theory (not to mention, the last six years of results) that the modern-day Derby favors a horse like this who is eligible to improve in his third start of the year, one can envision him moving forward.  But think he's gonna be overbet for a horse who's never won around two turns (and is eligible for an entry-level allowance).

Normandy Invasion is another successful son of Tapit, out of an otherwise nondescript Boston Harbor mare.  Some interesting horses under the 3rd dam though; and a fair amount of turf horses, including Gulls Cry and Navesink, and some Euro stakes winners as well.  And there is also Chumming, another member of that 1983 three-year old crop who ran 12th, for Woody Stephens, behind Sunny's Halo in the Derby.  So we're being drawn towards the Derby of 30 years ago, might as well embed the race.  I'm sure you always wanted to know what it would sound like to have Mike Battaglia call the Derby  ("like it was the 3rd at Turfway in early February," according to a You Tube commenter.)



That was Cavaet flying home for third; he'd won the Derby Trial a week earlier.

 - Another day,  another three winners for owners Kenneth and Sarah Ramsey and their trainer Michael Maker at Keeneland, as they continue their ridiculous domination of the proceedings there, with 22 winners each.  (Ms. Ramsey was hospitalized earlier in the day so let's hope everything is OK.)

The combo turns up at Belmont for opening day here with a couple of entries, so be aware and afraid. In the 5th 7th, their A Better Tomorrow is listed as the 2-1 morning line favorite despite not having raced on grass, but who are we mere mortals to suggest betting against him?  He's a half to a turf winner, we're told by A Closer Look in the Form; and has some grass winners deeper in the distaff pedigree as well.  But I'll tepidly and timidly suggest a look at the first time starter With Exultation (5-1), trained by Christophe Clement and bred by none other than the Ramseys themselves (sold as a yearling for $155,000).  So maybe they can get a taste of their own medicine here?  While we mentioned yesterday that Clement was winless at Keeneland, he's been quite sharp here in NY since wading back onto the NYRA circuit, with a record of 8-2-3-1, including Maximova, a debut runner on the grass.  Not surprisingly considering his breeders, With Exultation is by Kitten's Joy; he's out of a Cozzene mare and he's a full brother to two turf stakes winners (Cozy Kitten, Sisterhood) and another who is graded turf stakes placed (Becky's Kitten).  So definitely worth a peek in the paddock (or let Maggie do it for you) and on the tote.  If you dare.

Thursday Morning Derby Notes And More

Through the magic of Twitter, the Mighty Forego himself pointed out that I haven't mentioned Goldencents here; and it's true.  I've kinda lost interest in the Cali horses since Hear the Ghost got hurt.  His past performances make a striking impression; a lot of 1s and 2s, nary a poor effort to be found, and the best last Beyer in the race.  But I have my doubts about the quality of what he's run against out there; and though his dosage checks out, the son of In Mischief out of the middle distance star Banker's Gold doesn't have much on the catalog page.  (Though if you go back to his 5th mare, she's the dam of Mostly Sunny, in turn the dam of the 1983 Derby winner Sunny's Halo).  Most importantly, he runs fast early, not so fast late.  And on top of that, he figures to be overbet, especially with the Rick Pitino connection.  Not the profile of a horse I'm interested in as far as the Derby goes, so if he wins, I'll lose.

Mike Welsch is on the scene for the Form if you haven't seen, and filing daily workout reports.  Not only do we get his in depth observations of the official timed workouts, but we also get the jogs, gallops, and anything that constitutes an appearance on the track. 

  Vyjack, a big, impressive-looking colt, looked very sharp Tuesday but was not quite as impressive Wednesday.

Well, here I think we're getting squarely into "too much information" territory.  Don't think we need quite that much day-to-day granularity.  But the general impressions of the DRF clocker are surely worth following as we move along to the big day.   Though most of the horses seem to be doing fine (as one might expect), so far he seems to be particularly impressed with Revolutionary; and the filly Close Hatches for those interested in the Oaks.

As reader August Song pointed out, the Toddster has been experimenting with blinkers on Palace Malice in the mornings (though Welsch reported that he didn't have them on Wednesday).  He seemed to get distracted when he passed Rydilluc in the Blue Grass, and briefly switched back to his left lead.  So I wasn't surprised to read the Pletcher is considering an equipment change.  Agree with jp that he could be the wise guy horse.  But even the 3rd and 4th choices figure  to be like 7- or 8-1, doncha think?

 - State Senator Malcolm Smith and his alleged co-conspirators naturally pleaded not-guilty to the charges that he tried to bribe his way onto the Republican ticket in the NYC mayoral race to be decided this year.  Marcia Kramer reported for WCBS-TV that Smith has additionally been indicted on a new and even more troubling accusation:

  — trying to obtain $100,000 from a government witness “to give to other state senators in an effort to win their support … for a state Senate leadership position,” according to court documents.
...........
Sources told Kramer prosecutors are hoping to put extreme pressure on Smith so that he will rat out other politicians.

I'd guess that there are some of those other ratty politicians - maybe perhaps some connected to the AEG affair - that might be more than a little nervous about that.  Smith and the others have each been asked to provide a 150 GB storage device so that the prosecution can share the voluminous audio and video recordings, text messages, emails and more.  So this should be fun for sure.

 - People seem particularly excited for Belmont this year.  Maybe it was the extended cold weather around here this winter/spring.  Or perhaps the buzz is emanating from people who went to the dismal Aqueduct during the recently concluded meet.   But whatever the reason, I've heard a lot of enthusiasm over Friday's opener.  Of course, while the setting will improve, we'll probably have to wait a bit longer before the quality of the product picks up.   Of Friday's opening day card,  the Troy Record's Nick Kling tweeted: The 6 dirt races.....make it the worst card in my 25 yrs watching Belmont.  Eek!  But Nick is referring here to the Beyers of the horses in the allowance races, which he guesses "have Beyer figures 10-15 points below what they used to be."  So here again we get into the question of what constitutes "quality" at the races nowadays.  Haven't looked at these races yet; but I can surely live with lower Beyers as long as the races remain competitive.  (Though this observation from a long-time observer of the NYRA circuit is surely revealing and well-taken.)

 - In the 6th at Keeneland today (scheduled for the turf), North by Northlite (4-1) ships in from Fair Grounds for trainer Kellyn Gorder, who's been live with a couple of longshots here the last few days, including General Election, my Lexington pick who ran a bang-up second at 36-1.  Her last race was an odd one, as she was allowed to drift out to the seven path leading into the stretch before sprinting home in 23.82 seconds and getting nailed late by the graded stakes-placed Treasured Up.  Has a race over this course last fall which comes up as a fast one with my speed figures.   Will need to last another half-furlong today, but could control the pace here in a race which projects to be slow-paced.   Cry War Eagle (8-1) comes out of a couple of good allowance races at Gulfstream, and finished strongly in a slow-paced race in her last.  Could face a similar scenario here but could liven up the exotics.  Joel Rosario jumps off that one to ride Prissy (7-2) for the blistering Michael Maker/Ken and Sarah Ramsey combo.  Their success at this meet has surely been reflected on the tote board lately; I'm betting it will pay off to stand against this filly coming off a 328 day layoff and trying winners for the first time.  Morning line favorite Flower Mart (5-2) also advances from maiden company, goes for the Christophe Clement barn, winless at this meet, and comes up slower than the others on my numbers.  And I probably just set this race up for the favorite exacta box.

Derby Top Ten

This is the Left at the Gate Derby Top Ten of horses, people, and things I think will be in the headlines on or around Derby Day.

1) Orb worked five furlongs in 1:02 1/5 the other day, and galloped out six furlongs in 1:14 4/5 under regular exercise rider Jennifer Patterson. 

Working in company with Puzzling, a five-year-old mare ridden by Octavio Vergara, Orb ran the last quarter of a mile in :23 4/5.  [Brisnet]

   Shug's colt has won four in a row, and though he stalled at 97 on the Beyer scale in the Florida Derby, my figs have him moving forward, a more accurate representation I believe given the slow early pace of that race.  No doubt that the trainer has a lot to do with me liking this horse, given his usual practice of allowing his horses to develop gradually over time; he's only had six Derby starters as you may know.  When I hear this guy saying things like: "I've never had a horse show so much improvement over this short period of time at this time of the year," it makes me think he's going to run the best race of his short career thus far on Kentucky Derby day.

2)  Pick-a-Pletcher, any Pletcher.  OK, how about Revolutionary?  On performance and pedigree, anyway, figures to be the Toddster horse most likely to be running on late, doncha think?   This colt also worked on Sunday. 

  Working on the inside of recent first-level allowance winner Red Rifle, Revolutionary breezed four furlongs in :48 4/5 and recorded fractions of :12 3/5, :24 4/5 and :37 and galloped out five furlongs in 1:01 1/5 and six furlongs in 1:15 1/5. Their half-mile time tied for the 22nd fastest of 81 at the distance.

Calvin Borel was in the irons for the work, and will be aboard Revolutionary on the first Saturday in May. [Brisnet]

Oh, Calvin Borel is riding?   Isn't he still due to not win another Derby for like the next seven years or maybe ever?

3) The search for the Higgs boson particle leads scientists to an unexpected place - the barn of Vyjack's trainer Rudy Rodriguez, where another possible version of the particle is discovered in unusually high concentrations.  Astounded physicists hail the first discovery outside of a lab environment as a miracle.  But Rodriguez is cited by regulators for being over the allowable limit of God particles.  The Kentucky Horse Racing Commission summons the Almighty to a hearing to consider His license to practice in the state.

4)  The Wood Memorial victory by Verrazano seems to have elicited widely different reactions.  Some say he simply ran to slow to be taken seriously as a Derby winner; and that he had a perfect trip stalking a slow pace, yet couldn't dominate in the stretch.  Others say that the fact that he was able to sit behind that lethargic pace shows progress as a racehorse, and that he passed a critical test in repelling a challenge from a quality opponent in Vyjack.  Put me squarely in the latter category.  Still, have my doubts about his ability at the Derby distance, but I think he very well may not be favored; and, I dunno, guess there's a price at which I'd take a shot.

5)  Derby attendance hits an all-time low as thousands of fans spend the big day circling the skies overhead due to sequestration cuts of air traffic controllers.  Amongst the delayed is NBC's broadcast staff, forcing the network to desperately dispatch the team from the struggling Today show to host the telecast.  This leads viewers to bail in droves to other networks for tennis, movies, hunting shows, hair removal infomercials, or anything whatsoever that doesn't include Al Roker.  Ann Curry gets a good laugh out of it all.

6)  Weighing in on the urgent issue of medication in the game, National Rifle Association CEO Wayne LaPierre notes: "The only way to stop a bad guy with a syringe is a good guy with a syringe," and proposes that the Derby barns be patrolled by an appropriately-armed team of good guys led by the goody two-shoes trainers Christophe Clement and Graham Motion, as well as Joe Drape, Richard Dutrow (as part of his rehabilitation therapy), Mahmood Al Zarooni, Curlin, Atticus Finch, and select members of the Grace Church Choir of Men and Boys.  LaPierre adds that he is opposed to expanded drug testing, explaining: "Testing isn't working now anyway; expanded testing will only cause hassle and expenses to law-abiding trainers; cheaters will always find a way to beat the system; and blah blah blah blah blah blah blah.

7)  Well, if I like Orb so much,  feel like I should mention Itsmyluckyday as well.  Sure, he was beaten pretty decisively by Orb in the Florida Derby.  But he still ran well for second, has really blossomed as a three-year old, has nice tactical speed, and certainly rates some consideration should he draw well.

8)  Not to be outdone by the zealous owner who financed 24 hour surveillance cameras at the Santa Anita Derby, Churchill Downs officials up the ante and assign undercover investigators to shadow the Derby trainers on the grounds.  They err however by assigning one per horse and the cover is blown when Todd Pletcher notices a cloud of dust raised by the five (six?) shadowy figures following him around the backstrech.  He invites them in for tea and they become fast friends, going on in future years to form a popular barbershop sextet (septet?).

9)  I've said my piece on Palace Malice.....and if the Toddster is going to have 30% of the field, why shouldn't he have 30% of this top ten list?

10)   As post time approaches, public sentiment switches drastically to Orb.  But with polls showing that 90% of Americans support him to win, the U.S. Senate instead votes to back Revolutionary (at the suggestion of the Tea Party).   They then switch to Verrazano when that one is endorsed by the NRA.  Republicans then shift to Will Take Charge when they learn that President Obama likes Verrazano, which leads to a filibuster by Senator Rand Paul, who likes Java's War and mistakes the circling planes overhead for drones sent by the president to kill American citizens who gamble. 

From the archives:  Derby Top Ten, March 22, 2008

Saturday Morning Notes

In the 9th at Keeneland, the Lexington Stakes, General Election (15-1) attempts to rebound from a dismal effort in the Spiral.  Prior to that, he won the John Battaglia with an extremely wide closing move, earning a solid speed figure in the process.  Giant Finish, who finished a half length behind, went on to run a solid 3rd in the Spiral.  General Election didn't fare nearly as well; quite possible he bounced off the big effort in a race just 21 days later.  Now, he comes off a 28 day break - similar to the 29 days before the Battaglia - and shows a snappy half mile workout over the Keeneland track, as opposed to the sluggish one that preceded the Spiral.  Son of Harlan's Holiday has some turf pedigree in his female family (and, as I've often said, I think the Keeneland Poly is virtually interchangeable with grass form-wise); he traces back directly to the French champion Madelia (4th dam).  A lot of potential speed inside of him, and if it plays out that way (and who knows, really, with so many surface variables in play), this horse could benefit and bounce back.  Cerro (5-1) chased the lightning pace in the Fountain of Youth, and tries Poly for the first time.  Third dam Sex Appeal is the dam of the champion and prodigious sire El Gran Senor.   G1 winner Pure Fun (7-2) has raced well on the Turfway Poly, Cushion Track, dirt, and grass; filly tries the boys today and ranks the horse to beat.

In the 7th, Queen of Mambo (7-2) couldn't quite seal the deal in close thirds in a couple of tough turf routes in her last two.  Daughter of Elusive Quality has been in the money all four starts; two each on dirt and grass.  Cuts back to seven furlongs for good route-to-sprint barn, should handle this Poly course fine, and Prado is four-for-nine for this barn.  Clear Danger (10-1) was clearly crappy in her last two, but ran a close second in a fast race at this distance over this surface last fall, beating some pretty good horses in Ire, Spun Cap, and Lady Diva Ga Ga.  Could rebound at a price.

 - In the 1st at Aqueduct on Thursday, Run a Dubb Dubb ($67) edged Talent N Passion, the 4-5 favorite from the Rudy Rodriguez barn.  The winner, not surprisingly, was originally owned by NYRA board member Michael Dubb before being claimed for 50K in his second start.  I'm mentioning this less because the horse's winning trainer, Randi Persaud, has been showing signs of emerging from a slump of several years' duration (and he had another winner on Friday), and more because of Dubb's testifying on Rodriguez' behalf at the show trial staged by the Kentucky Horse Racing Commission earlier in the week.  Just seems rather odd to me that a member of the New NYRA board, charged as it is with restoring the integrity of racing in the state, would take such an active role in the defense of a trainer with multiple medication infractions, and one who may very well end up in a legal tussle with the Gaming Commission and/or NYRA over the latest accusation of such.  I'll leave it at "rather odd" for now.

A Happy Blue Grass Result

I'd mentioned on more than just a couple occasions how I thought that stakes run on synthetic are meaningless as Derby preps and shouldn't count as qualifying races.  So maybe I should eat those words before writing about how very pleased I am with the result of the Blue Grass, propelling Palace Malice and Java's War to the big race as it did.  Doesn't change my opinion in principle with respect to strictly synth/turf horses that qualify by winning those races.  However, in this case we have two horses that have shown ability on the dirt using a synth race to get in.  So, in this case, I was wrong in calling it meaningless as a prep, as both horses will likely be a factor for my approach to the race, though in completely opposite ways.

Palace Malice was my pick in the Louisiana Derby and was traveling quite well when he ran into the thicket of traffic that completely doomed his chances.  So, his second place finish in the Blue Grass not only earns him the points he needs, but gave him a useful race from which he should benefit....if, that is, three weeks isn't too short a turnaround for him.  He didn't run that fast according to Beyer, earning a figure of 89, if Beyer figures on the synth really mean anything in this context.  Have to say I'm highly impressed that he ran so well - wasn't around for the race, but never would have bet him at those odds.  Just don't think that turf/synth is going to be his best game.  And I'd love to see a horse with - gasp - four races this year including one three weeks out win this thing.  Maybe would serve to help change the current less is more mindset.  So, this is a horse I'll definitely be looking forward to seeing how his works shape up as we approach Derby day.

Also glad to see Java's War win as he did.  Just the kind of deep closer that the betting public usually loves.  Man, that 14th-to-1st running line is sure gonna look tempting as he stretches out to a mile and a quarter.  However, as opposed to Palace Malice, I'm not at all convinced that dirt will turn out to be his preferred surface as opposed to turf/synth.  Sure, he also closed impressively in the Tampa Bay when he came on for second to Verrazano.  However, that surface can be a quirky one, and my experience is that horses running well there seem to fare OK on the Keeneland Poly.  His other dirt race, at Churchill in last year's Kentucky Jockey Club, is inconclusive; an even 6th at a flat one-turn mile.  I think his pedigree leans towards grass.  He's a son of War Pass, out of a mare by Rainbow Quest, a daughter of the French and UK champ Blushing Groom (to whom he's inbred 4x3), who is a half to the grass champ Fiji and the French Group winner Capri.

This is not to say of course that Java's War can't win if he gets a clear path.  But the point is that he indeed will need a clear path, especially give his tendency to dawdle at the start; and will require everything to go his way in the 20 horse field to get one.  Definitely the type who I think will be overbet in relation to his chances, perhaps grossly so, and I will be excluding him from the top spot on my tickets.